2025 Women’s NCAA Tournament: Upset Projections and Key Matchups
As the excitement builds for the 2025 Women’s NCAA Tournament, the potential for upsets looms large, albeit with some variability from year to year. Historically, these surprises can be infrequent, as demonstrated in the previous tournament when only one lower seed managed to advance past the first round.
Understanding Upset Potentials
This year, a total of ten matchups have been highlighted where significant upsets could occur within the first four days of the tournament, as defined by the Giant Killers model. An upset is classified as any victory involving a team that is three seed lines lower than their opponent, meaning a No. 10 seed defeating a No. 7 seed, or a No. 6 overcoming a No. 3 counts equally.
Top Projected Upsets
1. South Dakota State vs. Oklahoma State
Upset probability: 32.6%
First round: 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday, ESPN2 (Location: Storrs, Connecticut)
In recent tournaments, South Dakota State has demonstrated its capacity for surprise, including a previous first-round upset against USC. Under Coach Aaron Johnston’s guidance, the Jackrabbits, led by Brooklyn Meyer (17.6 PPG), are well-equipped for a memorable March if they prove to be the dominant team on the court.
2. Harvard vs. Michigan State
Upset probability: 24.2%
First round: 4:30 p.m. ET Saturday, ESPNews (Location: Raleigh, North Carolina)
Despite statistical models favoring the Spartans, Harvard’s standout player, Harmoni Turner, has been in peak form, averaging over 31 points in recent games. This combination of strong offense and a robust defense that limits opposing scoring could lead to an unexpected victory.
3. Kansas State vs. Fairfield
Upset probability: 14.7%
First round: noon ET Saturday, ESPN (Location: Norman, Oklahoma)
Kansas State has been recovering from Ayoka Lee’s injury. With both teams shooting well from three-point range, a close game could see Fairfield exploiting their shooting skills to pull off an upset.
Other Notable Matches
- Austin Peay vs. Iowa: Upset chance: 18%
First round: 7:45 p.m. ET Saturday, ESPN2 - George Mason vs. Florida State: Upset chance: 7.5%
First round: 2 p.m. ET Saturday, ESPNews
With a clear strategy of focusing on both analytics and player performance, this year’s tournament is poised to surprise fans and pundits alike. As teams face off in the opening rounds, close attention to these matchups may provide thrilling outcomes that redefine expectations in women’s college basketball.